Tag Archives: Avdi Grimm

Why you should visit cemeteries

I really like this post from Avdi Grimm called “The Passion Gospel“. This remembers me a first chapter in a book: “The Art Of Thinking Clearly” from Rolf Dobelli:

..”no journalist is interested in failures – with exception of fallen superstars.This makes the cemetery invisible to outsiders. In daily life, because triumph is made more visible than failure, you systematically overestimate your chances of succeeding.”

..”The media is not interested in digging around in the graveyards of the unsuccessful. Nor is this its job.”

I think same  bias applies to blogs, twitters, facebook and press releases of companies or marketing in general. And to this blog too :)

…you should recognize that survivorship bias is at work, distorting the probability of success like cut glass..

..Survivorship bias means this: people systematically overestimate their chances of success. Guard against it by frequently visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments and careers. It is a sad walk, but one that should clear your mind.”